GOOGL

How do I short this before they IPO? $GOOGL is about to eat their lunch. $AAPL probably gets involved in a ring.

It seems so easy to just go buy the Amazon or Alphabet GPU version but they are hard to get credit against and do not hold their value over the years like Nvidia's do. Doesn't matter tomorrow or the next day, does matter over the long haul. And i like AMZN & GOOGL

Some quick thoughts on Intel's EMIB-T packaging for the new 2H27 Google TPU (Humufish). Based on my industry checks: 【How to read EMIB-T's 90% yield?】 1. Given Intel's track record running EMIB in mass production, hitting 90% technology validation yield on EMIB-T (still under development) is a very positive but reasonable data point. 2. Intel benchmarks EMIB production/assembly yield against FCBGA. Industry FCBGA yield today is generally above 98%. 3. On yield, getting from 90% to 98% is harder than getting from project kickoff to 90%. And technology validation yield ≠ final production yield, especially with some Humufish specs still unfinalized. So long-term, I'm positive on Intel's advanced packaging story. Near to mid-term, I'm staying cautious on how they get there. 【From 90% to 98%. Looks like just a few points. Does Google care? Absolutely】 1. Google recently asked TSMC how much it could save by placing wafer orders for Humufish's main compute die (designed in-house by Google) directly, rather than routing them through MediaTek. 2. Google and MediaTek have run a semi-COT model since day one (8t). MediaTek's mark-up sits mostly on the parts it designs itself, so whether Google places the wafer orders for main compute die directly isn't a key swing factor for MediaTek's earnings trajectory. 3. But Google even probing whether it can squeeze out the pass-through mark-up on wafer orders tells you something: Google has shifted from easygoing buyer to hard-nosed on cost. The reason is simple: to take on Nvidia head-on, cost is Google's edge, which makes EMIB-T production yield Google's problem to solve. For context, TSMC's yield target on 5.5-reticle CoWoS in 2026 also starts at 98%. 【TSMC's position】 1. My understanding is TSMC is still working out how much advanced-node capacity to allocate to Humufish in 2H27, for two reasons: (1) it still wants the back-end packaging orders, though looks unlikely for now, and that's by design on Google's part; and (2) it's still gauging actual back-end output from EMIB-T, to avoid misallocating scarce advanced-node capacity. 2. Humufish's effective back-end output hinges on both EMIB-T and substrates, and both need to be tracked together. 3. On the Humufish semi-COT model, TSMC also prefers MediaTek to place the wafer orders for the main compute die. Beyond the close working relationship, the key point is MediaTek is TSMC's third-largest advanced-node customer in 2025. If TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for TSMC to rebalance its wafer allocation mix.

閒聊 Intel EMIB-T 封裝的 2H27 新款 Google TPU（Humufish）。以下根據我的產業調查： 【EMIB-T 90% 良率，該怎麼看？】 1. 基於 Intel 已經有穩定生產 EMIB 的經驗，開發中的 EMIB-T 技術驗證良率達到 90%，是很正向但也合理的訊號。 2. Intel 把 FCBGA 設定為 EMIB 生產（組裝）良率的比較標竿。目前業界 FCBGA 的生產良率約在 98% 以上。 3. 從良率角度，90%→98% 難度高於從開案 → 90%。此外，技術驗證良率與成品生產良率也是兩回事（特別是 Humufish 仍有規格未定案）。所以我雖正向看待 Intel 先進封裝長期發展，但中短期內仍會謹慎關注 Intel 如何面對這些挑戰。 【從 90% 到 98%，表面上才差個幾%，Google 會在意嗎？當然會】 1. Google 近期詢問過台積電，自行投片 Humufish 的 main compute die（由 Google 自行設計），與讓聯發科代為投片相較，成本可節省多少。 2. Google 與聯發科的合作一開始（8t）就是採 semi-COT 模式。聯發科的 mark-up 主要來自自行設計部分，所以 Google 是否親自投片 main compute die，不是聯發科獲利成長趨勢的觀察重點。 3. 但從 Google 連投片相關的 pass-through mark-up 都想看看能不能省，代表 Google 的成本控管態度，已從過去的好好先生，變成錙銖必較的精算者，原因在於要跟 Nvidia 直接競爭，所以具備成本優勢的 Google 當然會在意 EMIB-T 生產良率。順帶一提，台積電對 2026 年 5.5-reticle CoWoS 的生產良率目標，也是 98% 起跳。 【台積電的立場】 1. 我的理解是，台積電仍在評估 2H27 要分配多少先進製程產能給 Humufish，原因在於：(1) 仍想爭取後段封裝訂單（但目前看很難，這是 Google 有意為之的策略）、與 (2) 尚在評估後段 EMIB-T 實際產出，避免稀缺的先進製程資源被錯置。 2. 影響 Humufish 後段有效產出的關鍵，包括 EMIB-T 與載板，要追蹤這件事必須兩個一起看。 3. 在 Humufish semi-COT 方面，台積電也是傾向讓聯發科投片main compute die，除了兩家公司關係好外，關鍵是聯發科是台積電第三大先進製程客戶（2025年），若 TPU 訂單有變化，以聯發科的規模，較容易協助台積電做投片組合調整，扮演一個稱職的緩衝角色。