TSM

China is becoming comical with claims now. FUD/propaganda basically. Especially when they have reliance on smuggled/foreign parts Started with DeepSeek narrative killing $NVDA . Yesterday, they tried to unsuccessfully push FUD against $MU $SK Hynix and Samsung that CXMT (who????) are flooding the market with cheaper DRAM/NAND and supposedly cause a potential price crash. Please… Now, apparently they’re competitive with $TSM overnight.

Some quick thoughts on Intel's EMIB-T packaging for the new 2H27 Google TPU (Humufish). Based on my industry checks: 【How to read EMIB-T's 90% yield?】 1. Given Intel's track record running EMIB in mass production, hitting 90% technology validation yield on EMIB-T (still under development) is a very positive but reasonable data point. 2. Intel benchmarks EMIB production/assembly yield against FCBGA. Industry FCBGA yield today is generally above 98%. 3. On yield, getting from 90% to 98% is harder than getting from project kickoff to 90%. And technology validation yield ≠ final production yield, especially with some Humufish specs still unfinalized. So long-term, I'm positive on Intel's advanced packaging story. Near to mid-term, I'm staying cautious on how they get there. 【From 90% to 98%. Looks like just a few points. Does Google care? Absolutely】 1. Google recently asked TSMC how much it could save by placing wafer orders for Humufish's main compute die (designed in-house by Google) directly, rather than routing them through MediaTek. 2. Google and MediaTek have run a semi-COT model since day one (8t). MediaTek's mark-up sits mostly on the parts it designs itself, so whether Google places the wafer orders for main compute die directly isn't a key swing factor for MediaTek's earnings trajectory. 3. But Google even probing whether it can squeeze out the pass-through mark-up on wafer orders tells you something: Google has shifted from easygoing buyer to hard-nosed on cost. The reason is simple: to take on Nvidia head-on, cost is Google's edge, which makes EMIB-T production yield Google's problem to solve. For context, TSMC's yield target on 5.5-reticle CoWoS in 2026 also starts at 98%. 【TSMC's position】 1. My understanding is TSMC is still working out how much advanced-node capacity to allocate to Humufish in 2H27, for two reasons: (1) it still wants the back-end packaging orders, though looks unlikely for now, and that's by design on Google's part; and (2) it's still gauging actual back-end output from EMIB-T, to avoid misallocating scarce advanced-node capacity. 2. Humufish's effective back-end output hinges on both EMIB-T and substrates, and both need to be tracked together. 3. On the Humufish semi-COT model, TSMC also prefers MediaTek to place the wafer orders for the main compute die. Beyond the close working relationship, the key point is MediaTek is TSMC's third-largest advanced-node customer in 2025. If TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for TSMC to rebalance its wafer allocation mix.

閒聊 Intel EMIB-T 封裝的 2H27 新款 Google TPU（Humufish）。以下根據我的產業調查： 【EMIB-T 90% 良率，該怎麼看？】 1. 基於 Intel 已經有穩定生產 EMIB 的經驗，開發中的 EMIB-T 技術驗證良率達到 90%，是很正向但也合理的訊號。 2. Intel 把 FCBGA 設定為 EMIB 生產（組裝）良率的比較標竿。目前業界 FCBGA 的生產良率約在 98% 以上。 3. 從良率角度，90%→98% 難度高於從開案 → 90%。此外，技術驗證良率與成品生產良率也是兩回事（特別是 Humufish 仍有規格未定案）。所以我雖正向看待 Intel 先進封裝長期發展，但中短期內仍會謹慎關注 Intel 如何面對這些挑戰。 【從 90% 到 98%，表面上才差個幾%，Google 會在意嗎？當然會】 1. Google 近期詢問過台積電，自行投片 Humufish 的 main compute die（由 Google 自行設計），與讓聯發科代為投片相較，成本可節省多少。 2. Google 與聯發科的合作一開始（8t）就是採 semi-COT 模式。聯發科的 mark-up 主要來自自行設計部分，所以 Google 是否親自投片 main compute die，不是聯發科獲利成長趨勢的觀察重點。 3. 但從 Google 連投片相關的 pass-through mark-up 都想看看能不能省，代表 Google 的成本控管態度，已從過去的好好先生，變成錙銖必較的精算者，原因在於要跟 Nvidia 直接競爭，所以具備成本優勢的 Google 當然會在意 EMIB-T 生產良率。順帶一提，台積電對 2026 年 5.5-reticle CoWoS 的生產良率目標，也是 98% 起跳。 【台積電的立場】 1. 我的理解是，台積電仍在評估 2H27 要分配多少先進製程產能給 Humufish，原因在於：(1) 仍想爭取後段封裝訂單（但目前看很難，這是 Google 有意為之的策略）、與 (2) 尚在評估後段 EMIB-T 實際產出，避免稀缺的先進製程資源被錯置。 2. 影響 Humufish 後段有效產出的關鍵，包括 EMIB-T 與載板，要追蹤這件事必須兩個一起看。 3. 在 Humufish semi-COT 方面，台積電也是傾向讓聯發科投片main compute die，除了兩家公司關係好外，關鍵是聯發科是台積電第三大先進製程客戶（2025年），若 TPU 訂單有變化，以聯發科的規模，較容易協助台積電做投片組合調整，扮演一個稱職的緩衝角色。